After a record-breaking 2025–26, Australian agriculture enters the new financial year from a position of considerable strength. Production and exports remain historically high, but changing seasonal conditions, elevated input costs and softer commodity values are putting the sector’s resilience back in focus.
A Landmark Year for Australian Farming
Australia’s agricultural sector has closed out one of the strongest years in its history, reinforcing its importance not only to regional communities but to the wider national economy and the country’s export performance.
According to the latest Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) estimates, the gross value of agricultural production reached a record $104.6 billion in 2025–26. The result represented a remarkable performance across a year shaped by strong livestock markets, substantial crop output and continued international demand for Australian food and fibre.
Agricultural exports were similarly strong. ABARES estimates export value reached approximately $80.3 billion in 2025–26. That strength demonstrates just how international Australian agriculture has become: over the three years to 2024–25, around 71% of agricultural production by volume was exported.
The longer-term story is equally impressive. The real value of Australian agriculture, fisheries and forestry production increased 45% over the two decades to 2024–25, climbing from $69.3 billion to $100.3 billion in 2024–25 dollars. Export value expanded by approximately 60% in real terms over the same period.
An Industry of National Importance
Agriculture’s significance stretches well beyond the farm gate. Agriculture, fisheries and forestry represented approximately 2.2% of Australian GDP in 2024–25 and accounted for 12.4% of the nation’s goods and services exports. The broader sector supported around 308,000 workers, equivalent to 2.1% of national employment and 5.6% of rural employment.
The sector is also fundamental to the economic fabric of regional Australia, supporting supply chains extending through transport, food processing, equipment, agricultural technology, professional services and export infrastructure.
Productivity has played a critical role in maintaining that competitiveness. Broadacre farm productivity increased by an average of 1.2% annually between 1977–78 and 2023–24, while cropping productivity grew by an even stronger 1.6% annually. ABARES estimates that every dollar invested in agricultural research and development generates approximately eight dollars in returns over ten years.
From Records to Reality
The exceptional 2025–26 result, however, will be difficult to repeat. ABARES’ September outlook forecasts gross agricultural production at $99.4 billion in 2026–27, a year-over-year decline of around 5%. Agricultural exports are similarly forecast to fall 5% to $76.3 billion. Even after that contraction, production would remain the second highest on record.
Crops are facing particularly mixed conditions. National winter crop production is forecast to decline 12% to approximately 61 million tonnes, although barley production is expected to be the second highest on record. Horticulture offers another bright spot, with production value forecast to reach a record $18.8 billion. Meanwhile, beef production is expected to moderate by 5% to 2.9 million tonnes, still its second-highest level on record.
Resilience Remains the Constant
Australian agriculture therefore enters 2026–27 with both momentum and challenges. Higher fertiliser and other input costs, variable rainfall and changing global market conditions are squeezing margins, with average broadacre farm business profit forecast to fall 39% this year.
Yet the broader trajectory remains compelling. Australian agriculture has spent decades becoming larger, more productive, more technologically sophisticated and increasingly connected to global markets. After a record year, the next chapter will be less about setting another headline number and more about demonstrating the adaptability that has long defined one of Australia’s most important industries.
